Practice
Messy Stories and Numbers
Read each short scene, choose the best match, and then check the feedback.
Question 1
A company succeeds, and people tell a clean story about vision and grit while ignoring timing, luck, and market conditions.
Answer checked.
A neat story is replacing a messier reality with many causes. That is Narrative Fallacy.
Read the full lessonQuestion 2
After a launch fails, the team says the bad result was obvious from the start even though they were confident before it happened.
Answer checked.
The known outcome is rewriting how predictable the event felt at the time. That is Hindsight Bias.
Read the full lessonQuestion 3
A rare condition shows up in one test result, and someone assumes it is now very likely without checking how rare it is overall.
Answer checked.
The vivid result is being overweighted while the background odds are ignored. That is Base Rate Neglect.
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A team changes its homepage during the holiday rush and then says the homepage must have caused the sales increase.
Answer checked.
Two things happened together, but the timing alone does not prove cause. That is Correlation vs. Causation.
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One dramatic illness story makes someone feel the risk must be common everywhere.
Answer checked.
The vivid example is being mistaken for the broader pattern. That is Availability Heuristic.
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