Glossary

A Famous Person Said It

Appeal to Authority

Using status or fame like proof instead of checking the evidence.

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A Neat Story Feels More True Than Messy Reality

Narrative Fallacy

A mistake that prefers a neat, coherent story over a messier but more accurate explanation.

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A Short Streak Feels Like It Must Reverse

Gambler's Fallacy

Believing a short random streak makes the opposite outcome more likely because it feels due.

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A Tiny Sample Gets Treated Like The Whole Truth

Law of Small Numbers

Trusting a tiny sample as if it reflects the whole pattern.

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Assuming Other Minds Work More Like Mine Than They Do

Projection Bias

A bias that projects your own preferences, feelings, or reactions onto other people.

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Assuming People Mostly Get What They Deserve

Just-World Hypothesis

The belief that people usually get what they deserve, even when reality is shaped by luck and injustice.

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Attacking the Person

Ad Hominem

A personal attack used instead of a real answer.

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Being More Sure Than The Evidence Warrants

Overconfidence Effect

Greater certainty than the evidence or actual skill level deserves.

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Believing The Good Outcome Is More Likely For Me

Optimism Bias

Expecting better outcomes and lower risks for yourself than the evidence supports.

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Blaming Character, Ignoring Context

Fundamental Attribution Error

An error that overexplains behavior by character and underexplains it by context.

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Change The Standard After It Gets Met

Moving the Goalposts

Changing the standard after someone already met the earlier one.

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Changing The Subject By Pointing Somewhere Else

Whataboutism

A dodge that answers criticism by pointing to a different problem elsewhere.

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Extreme Results Often Drift Back Toward Normal

Regression to the Mean

The tendency for unusually high or low results to move closer to average next time.

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Feeling More In Charge Than Reality Allows

Illusion of Control

The false belief that you can control outcomes more than reality allows, especially when luck or larger systems play a major role.

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Feelings Used As Proof

Appeal to Emotion

Using fear, pity, guilt, or some other strong feeling like proof.

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Flood The Room With More Claims Than Anyone Can Check

Gish Gallop

Flooding a conversation with more claims than anyone can check carefully.

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Going Along Feels Safer Than Standing Apart

Conformity Bias

Changing your judgment to match the group because fitting in feels safer than standing apart.

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Having Facts Nearby Feels Like Understanding

Illusion of Knowledge

The false sense of understanding that comes from access to information rather than from deep comprehension.

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I Built Part Of It, So I Overvalue It

IKEA Effect

Overvaluing something because your own labor went into it.

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I Know The Name, So I Trust It More

Recognition Heuristic

Favoring a recognized option because recognition feels like useful proof.

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I Know What They Think About Me

Mind Reading

Assuming you know what someone else thinks without enough evidence.

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If I Can Recall It Fast, It Feels Common

Availability Heuristic

A heuristic that judges frequency by ease of recall rather than actual rates.

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If I Feel It Strongly, It Must Be True

Emotional Reasoning

A distortion that treats strong feelings as proof that a conclusion is true.

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If It Feels Familiar, It Feels Safer Or Truer

Familiarity Heuristic

A shortcut that treats familiar things as safer, better, or more believable.

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If It Feels Good Or Bad, I Judge Fast

Affect Heuristic

A shortcut that uses a fast feeling to judge risk, value, or truth.

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If It Feels Smooth, It Feels True Or Learned

Fluency Illusion

The mistake of treating ease of processing as proof of truth, understanding, or memory strength.

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If It Looks Like The Pattern, I Assume It Fits

Representativeness Heuristic

A shortcut that judges by pattern fit instead of actual evidence or odds.

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If It Seems Rare, It Feels More Valuable

Scarcity Heuristic

A shortcut that treats rarity as proof of value or urgency.

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If Others Are Doing It, It Feels Safer

Social Proof Bias

A bias that treats other people's behavior as proof of what is right or safe.

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Ignoring The Big Background Numbers

Base Rate Neglect

Ignoring background odds and overweighting a vivid clue or result.

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It Feels Obvious After It Happens

Hindsight Bias

A bias that makes past outcomes feel more predictable once they are known.

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It Must Be About Me

Personalization

Taking too much personal blame for events that are not fully about you.

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It Will Take Less Time Than It Will

Planning Fallacy

A trap that underestimates how much time or effort real work takes.

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Judging The Decision By The Ending Alone

Outcome Bias

A mistake that judges a decision mainly by its result instead of by the quality of reasoning behind it.

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Knowing A Little Can Feel Like Knowing A Lot

Dunning-Kruger Effect

Overrating your understanding or skill because you do not yet see how much you still do not know.

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Linking Two Things More Strongly Than The Evidence Supports

Illusory Correlation

A bias that sees a stronger connection between two things than the evidence really shows.

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Looking For Proof You Already Like

Confirmation Bias

A bias that favors matching evidence and filters out challenging evidence.

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Loss Feels Bigger Than Gain

Loss Aversion

A bias that makes losses feel stronger than equal-sized gains.

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Make The Room Feel Sorry Instead Of Proving The Case

Appeal to Pity

Using sympathy or sadness to win agreement when the evidence is still weak.

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More People Agree With Me Than Really Do

False Consensus Effect

A bias that overestimates how widely your own views or habits are shared by other people.

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My Actions Need Context, But Yours Reveal Character

Actor-Observer Bias

Explaining your own behavior by context and other people's behavior by character.

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My Group Gets Extra Trust And Grace

In-Group Bias

A bias that favors your own group with extra trust, credit, or lenience.

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My Wins Prove Me, But My Losses Need Another Explanation

Self-Serving Bias

A bias that claims success as personal merit but explains failure as somebody else's fault or bad luck.

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Once It Is Mine, It Feels More Valuable

Endowment Effect

Valuing something more because it is already yours.

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Once You Know It, It Is Hard To Imagine Not Knowing It

Curse of Knowledge

The tendency to forget what it is like not to know something once you have learned it.

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One Event Becomes My Whole Story

Overgeneralization

Turning one event into a broad rule about yourself or life.

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One Example Becomes A Rule

Hasty Generalization

Making a big rule from too little evidence.

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One Good Deed Starts Feeling Like A Permit

Moral Licensing

The tendency to use past good behavior or moral identity as an excuse for a later weak choice.

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One Good Trait Colors Everything Else

Halo Effect

A bias that lets one strong positive impression shape unrelated judgments.

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One Part Is True, So The Whole Must Be True

Composition Fallacy

Assuming the whole must be true because one part is true.

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One Problem Becomes A Disaster

Catastrophizing

A distortion that turns a setback into a much bigger disaster than the evidence supports.

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One Step Means Disaster

Slippery Slope

Assuming one small step must lead to a much bigger disaster.

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Only Extremes Count

Black-and-White Thinking

A distortion that turns mixed reality into two harsh extremes.

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Only Seeing The Winners Distorts The Lesson

Survivorship Bias

Learning from visible winners while ignoring the unseen failures that dropped out.

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Only Two Choices

False Dilemma

A fake either-or choice that hides other real options.

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Pick The Pattern After The Fact

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

Picking a pattern after the fact and treating it like proof while ignoring the misses.

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Pulling You Off The Point

Red Herring

A distracting point that pulls attention away from the real issue.

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Scare The Room Instead Of Proving The Point

Appeal to Fear

Using fear to push agreement before the evidence earns it.

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Seeing A Meaningful Pattern In The Noise

Patternicity

The tendency to see meaningful patterns or signals in events that may mostly be random noise.

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Sticking With It Because You Already Paid

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Staying with a bad path because past cost feels too painful to leave behind.

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Sticking With The Current Setup Because It Feels Safer

Status Quo Bias

Favoring the current option mainly because change feels harder or riskier.

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Stuck On The First Number

Anchoring Bias

A bias that lets the first number pull later judgment too strongly.

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That Does Not Count As A Real Member

No True Scotsman

Changing who counts as a “real” member so a broad claim cannot be disproved.

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The Big Total Tells A Different Story Than The Smaller Groups

Simpson's Paradox

When the overall numbers tell a different story than the meaningful subgroups inside them.

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The Claim Proves Itself

Circular Reasoning

A reasoning loop where the claim gets used as its own proof.

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The Crowd Must Be Right

Bandwagon Fallacy

Treating popularity as proof that something is true or good.

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The Group Stops Questioning Itself

Groupthink

A group decision trap where the desire for harmony silences real testing and dissent.

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The Latest Thing Feels Bigger Than The Rest

Recency Bias

Giving the latest event too much weight and the longer pattern too little.

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The Negative Part Lands Harder And Stays Longer

Negativity Bias

A bias that gives negative information more weight and staying power than equally strong positive information.

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The Powerful Voice Feels More Right Than It Should

Authority Bias

Giving extra weight to a claim because it comes from status or rank.

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The Whole Is True, So Every Part Must Be Too

Division Fallacy

Assuming each part must be true because the whole is true.

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The Wording Changes The Choice

Framing Effect

A bias where different wording changes judgment about the same facts.

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They All Seem The Same To Me

Outgroup Homogeneity Bias

Seeing another group as more uniform and same-like than your own group.

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Thinking You Understand More Than You Really Do

Illusion of Explanatory Depth

The illusion that you understand something deeply until you try to explain it in detail.

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This Happened, So That Caused It

False Cause

Mistaking sequence or closeness for real cause and effect.

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Throwing Even More Into A Bad Choice

Escalation of Commitment

Doubling down on a weak choice by adding more commitment to avoid admitting error.

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Together Does Not Mean Caused

Correlation vs. Causation

Mistaking a connection between two things for proof that one caused the other.

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Too Many Choices Drain Good Judgment

Decision Fatigue

Worse judgment caused by too many decisions, too much stress, or too much mental load.

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Too Many Options Make The Choice Worse

Choice Overload

A trap where too many options create delay, confusion, or weak choices.

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Treating A Group Label Like It Explains The Person

Stereotyping

Judging a person mainly through a group label and treating that label like proof.

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Twisting the Point

Straw Man

A distorted version of an argument that is easier to knock down.

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Words That Push Before The Facts Arrive

Loaded Language

Emotion-heavy wording used to push judgment before the facts are tested.

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You Do It Too

Tu Quoque

Answering criticism with a charge of hypocrisy instead of addressing the point.

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