Practice
Decisions Under Uncertainty
Read each short scene, choose the best match, and then check the feedback. This set focuses on luck, uncertainty, weak signals, and the mistakes people make while trying to decide anyway.
Question 1
A risky product bet works once, and the team starts calling the original decision smart without checking how weak the reasoning really was.
Answer checked.
The choice is being judged by the ending alone. That is Outcome Bias.
Read the full lessonQuestion 2
A team says a deadline will be easy to hit even though similar projects always run long and many unknowns still remain.
Answer checked.
The plan is unrealistically optimistic despite a repeated track record of delay. That is Planning Fallacy.
Read the full lessonQuestion 3
After three bad weeks in a row, an investor says a winning streak must be due next because the pattern has to balance out.
Answer checked.
A short streak is being treated like it must reverse on schedule. That is Gambler's Fallacy.
Read the full lessonQuestion 4
A few vivid coincidences make a leader sure there is a hidden pattern in the market even though the broader evidence is weak.
Answer checked.
Possible noise is being turned into a meaningful signal too quickly. That is Patternicity.
Read the full lessonQuestion 5
A team notices two dramatic failures after a process change and becomes sure the change caused the problem, even though the wider data does not support the link.
Answer checked.
A memorable pairing is being treated like a stronger relationship than the evidence shows. That is Illusory Correlation.
Read the full lessonQuestion 6
A leader keeps touching small controls in a turbulent situation and starts acting like the extra activity itself means the outcome is under command.
Answer checked.
Influence is being inflated into control over a partly uncertain system. That is Illusion of Control.
Read the full lessonQuestion 7
Someone sees one vivid case of a rare problem and immediately assumes the problem is now likely, without checking how rare it is overall.
Answer checked.
The background odds are being ignored while the striking case gets overweighted. That is Base Rate Neglect.
Read the full lessonQuestion 8
A company explains a messy success as if one heroic decision caused everything, while timing, luck, and market shifts disappear from the story.
Answer checked.
A neat story is replacing a more complex reality with many causes. That is Narrative Fallacy.
Read the full lesson