Practice
Confidence Reality Check
Read each scene, choose the best match, and then check the feedback.
Question 1
Someone says they fully understand how a system works, but when asked to explain the steps, they can only repeat vague summaries.
Answer checked.
The feeling of understanding collapsed when the details had to be explained. That is the Illusion of Explanatory Depth.
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A team lead promises a delivery date with total certainty even though major unknowns remain and the evidence is thin.
Answer checked.
Certainty is outrunning the support for it. That is Overconfidence Effect.
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After a messy project fails, someone says the result was obvious all along.
Answer checked.
The outcome only feels obvious after the fact. That is Hindsight Bias.
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A person keeps collecting evidence that matches their first guess and ignores the warning signs against it.
Answer checked.
Evidence is being filtered in favor of the preferred belief. That is Confirmation Bias.
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A product seems dangerous because one vivid story comes to mind faster than the broader data.
Answer checked.
Easy recall is being mistaken for frequency. That is Availability Heuristic.
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