Comparison
Overconfidence vs Illusion of Explanatory Depth
Main difference in one sentence
Overconfidence is being too sure overall, while the Illusion of Explanatory Depth is feeling sure you understand the mechanism when you do not.
Self-Knowledge Traps
Metacognitive Illusions
Overconfidence shows up as certainty that runs ahead of evidence, skill, or track record. The person feels more accurate than they really are.
Self-Knowledge Traps
Metacognitive Illusions
Illusion of Explanatory Depth shows up when something feels understood until a step-by-step explanation is required. The weakness is in the supposed depth of understanding.
Example where people confuse them
A leader says a plan will definitely work even though the evidence is thin. That is Overconfidence. If the same leader says the system is simple but cannot explain how it actually works, that is the Illusion of Explanatory Depth.
Quick memory trick
Overconfidence says, “I am sure.” Explanatory-depth illusion says, “I understand,” until details arrive.