Create an end‑to‑end Wildfire Ignition Risk & PSPS Decision‑Support system for a Southern California investor‑owned utility operating in High Fire Threat District (HFTD) Tiers 2–3. The objective is to reduce equipment‑caused ignitions by 25% year over year while cutting Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) customer‑minutes by 15%, without compromising safety or regulatory compliance.
The system’s scope covers all overhead distribution and sub‑transmission segments in HFTD Tiers 2–3 and their adjacent buffer zones. During Red Flag or Santa Ana conditions, it updates every 15 minutes; otherwise, it refreshes hourly. It supports three decision horizons: day‑ahead planning for the next 24–72 hours, near‑real‑time operations over the next 0–6 hours, and post‑event analysis after conditions normalize.
It ingests and time‑aligns multiple input domains. Weather data include wind gusts, sustained wind, relative humidity, temperature, precipitation, lightning, and stability indices. Fuels and terrain inputs cover live and dead fuel moisture proxies such as ERC and NDVI, slope and aspect, and historical burn perimeters. Grid‑asset data include conductor type (bare or covered), span information, protection devices such as reclosers and fuses, asset age and condition, inspection findings from UAS/IR/LiDAR, and recent work orders. Operations signals incorporate fault and momentary counts, load, switching states, prior PSPS footprints, and patrol outcomes. Vegetation data track clearance distances, overhangs, growth‑rate models, and any unresolved defects. Community and critical‑infrastructure context layers identify medical baseline customers, hospitals, water and wireless infrastructure, and access/egress constraints.
Each line segment receives a 0–100 risk score governed by an initial rubric to be tuned. A forecast wind gust exceeding 55 mph adds 25 points, while 45–55 mph adds 15. Relative humidity below 12% adds 15 points; 12–20% adds 10. If the Energy Release Component (ERC) is above the 90th seasonal percentile, 15 points are added; between the 80th and 90th percentiles, 10 are added. HFTD Tier 3 contributes 15 points and Tier 2 contributes 8. Any unresolved vegetation defect in the last 90 days adds 20 points. More than five momentaries in the past 30 days, or a recent ground fault, adds 10 points. A five‑year historical ignition density within one kilometer adds 10 points. Asset hardening—such as covered conductor or fast‑curve protection—reduces the score by 10 points, and wetting rain greater than 0.25 inches in the past 24 hours also reduces the score by 10.
Automated actions are tied to score thresholds, always with a human‑in‑the‑loop override. At scores of 85 or higher (Extreme), reclosing is disabled; the event is escalated to the Emergency Operations Center; patrols are initiated; and the system prepares a PSPS decision package that includes alternatives such as sectionalizing, mobile generation, and microgrids, while triggering a regulator‑compliant notifications workflow and sending a Slack or Teams alert to the Duty Officer and Communications. At 70–84 (Very High), the system applies sensitive protection settings, pre‑stages crews, schedules drone/IR patrols within 24 hours, issues customer advisories without promises, and generates contingency plans in the Outage and Advanced Distribution Management Systems (OMS/ADMS). At 55–69 (High), it schedules “quick‑hit” vegetation abatement within 72 hours, targets asset inspections, and reviews device coordination. At 40–54 (Elevated), it adds the segment to a rolling 30‑day work queue for vegetation and hardware and runs hardening simulations for the next capital‑planning cycle. Below 40 (Baseline), it monitors only.
For executive and operator decisions, the system auto‑generates a package that maps the top‑N risk segments and explains the drivers—for example, wind and fuels may account for 62 points of a segment’s score. It quantifies trade‑offs between expected ignition‑risk reduction and PSPS customer‑minutes, including exposure of critical loads. It ranks mitigation options, including sectionalizing plans, temporary reconfiguration, mobile generation, community resource centers, and the associated communications plan.
The platform integrates with Geographic Information Systems (e.g., Esri) for network topology; ADMS/OMS/SCADA for switching and telemetry; Enterprise Asset Management (e.g., SAP or Maximo) for work orders; Customer/Communications systems (e.g., Everbridge or Twilio) for notifications; and a Data Lake and Feature Store for model features. Identity and access are aligned to NERC‑CIP controls.
Reporting and performance management focus on safety, reliability, model quality, operations, and financial outcomes. Safety metrics include equipment‑caused ignitions, acres impacted, and near‑misses. Reliability metrics include PSPS customer‑minutes of interruption (CMI) and SAIDI/SAIFI segmented by HFTD versus non‑HFTD. Model metrics include precision and recall for top‑decile risk segments, lead‑time accuracy, and false‑positive rate. Operations metrics include patrol SLA adherence, time‑to‑decision, and crew utilization. Financial metrics include cost per avoided ignition and proxies for claim or litigation avoidance.
The system is designed with clear guardrails. It complies with CPUC requirements for wildfire, PSPS, and Wildfire Mitigation Plan reporting as well as customer‑contact obligations. Accessibility is built in so that Access and Functional Needs (AFN) populations receive redundant communication paths. Security and privacy controls enforce NERC‑CIP segmentation, exclude PII from field tools, and maintain audit logs for all automated decisions. A human override is required for any de‑energization, and every PSPS action must document the alternatives that were considered.
Acceptance criteria are explicit. Backtests over five or more years must show that at least 80% of historical equipment ignitions occurred in hours or segments that the system scored at 70 or higher. A live pilot spanning one fire season must demonstrate a 20% or greater ignition reduction in HFTD Tier 3 circuits versus matched controls and at least a 10% reduction in PSPS CMI with equal or better safety outcomes. Operators must rate the clarity and actionability of decision packages at 4 out of 5 or higher, and regulator reporting should be generated without manual rework. The scoring, actions, and integrations can be tailored to a specific technology stack—for example, Esri with GE or Schneider ADMS and SAP or Maximo for asset management—and delivered as a concise, one‑page prompt specification suitable for direct handoff to a data and operations team.
Create an end‑to‑end Wildfire Ignition Risk & PSPS Decision‑Support system for a Southern California investor‑owned utility operating in High Fire Threat District (HFTD) Tiers 2–3. The goal is to reduce equipment‑caused ignitions by 25% year‑over‑year while cutting PSPS customer‑minutes by 15%, without violating safety or regulatory requirements.
Create an end‑to‑end Wildfire Ignition Risk & PSPS Decision‑Support system that reduces equipment‑caused ignitions by 25% YoY and PSPS customer‑minutes by 15%, while maintaining CPUC compliance and operator authority. Coverage: HFTD Tiers 2–3 + 1‑mile buffer. Cadence: 15‑min during Red Flag/Santa Ana; hourly otherwise. Horizons: Day‑ahead (24–72h), near‑real‑time (0–6h), post‑event.
Join keys & crosswalk
Esri.SectionId
↔ADMS.LineSectionId
(maintain a section_id_xwalk table).Esri.DeviceGUID
↔ADMS.DeviceId
.SAP.AssetId
↔Esri.AssetId
(maintain asset_id_xwalk). All features must resolve to a canonicalsection_id
.
section_id
, 0–100) — initial weightsmomentaries_30d > 5
or recent_ground_fault = true
: +10Explainability: store top contributors with SHAP‑like attributions: {"wind": +22, "fuels": +12, "veg_defect": +20, ...}
.
Config example (risk_config.json
)
{
"cadence_minutes": 15,
"thresholds": {"extreme": 85, "very_high": 70, "high": 55, "elevated": 40},
"weights": {
"wind_gust": {"gt_55": 25, "45_to_55": 15},
"rh": {"lt_12": 15, "12_to_20": 10},
"erc_pct": {"gt_90": 15, "80_to_90": 10},
"hftd": {"tier3": 15, "tier2": 8},
"veg_defect_90d": 20,
"ops_stress": 10,
"ignition_density": 10,
"asset_hardening": -10,
"wetting_rain_24h": -10
}
}
Extreme (≥85)
GE ADMS:
Very High (70–84)
High (55–69)
Elevated (40–54)
Baseline (<40)
Esri
Write: RiskSegments
Feature Layer with fields:
section_id
(string, key), score
(int), band
(string), window_start
, window_end
, top_factors
(JSON), actions_suggested
(JSON), last_updated
.band in ('EXTREME','VERY_HIGH')
).GE ADMS
risk-events
topic (Kafka/AMQP) with payload:{
"section_id": "SEC-12345",
"score": 87,
"band": "EXTREME",
"devices": ["RC-7781","RC-7782"],
"recommended_profile": "FIRE_SAFETY",
"expires_at": "2025-09-08T18:15:00Z"
}
adms-actions
topic:{
"section_id": "SEC-12345",
"action_id": "ACT-9001",
"actions_applied": [
{"device_id":"RC-7781","setting":"RECL_CYCLES","value":0},
{"device_id":"RC-7782","profile":"FIRE_SAFETY"}
],
"requested_by":"DutyOfficer",
"timestamp":"2025-09-08T17:58:10Z"
}
plan_id
for operator review/approval.SAP EAM
Create WO on thresholds (HIGH
/ELEVATED
):
section_id
, GIS link to Esri.Sync: backwrite WO IDs into RiskSegments
attributes for traceability.
Everbridge
Templates:
Wildfire Advisory (No Promise)
, PSPS Watch
, PSPS Warning
, multilingual + AFN variants.Trigger: from Decision Package with geofenced audience from Esri polygon; record notification IDs.
Lakehouse
features_section_hourly
, risk_scores_15min
, risk_events
, actions_audit
, work_orders
, notifications
.Switching Plan
IDs and SAP WO IDs where applicable.Deploy the same decision‑support outcomes as Spec A, tuned to EcoStruxure ADMS operations, Maximo work management, Twilio communications, and Snowflake analytics. Cadence, coverage, and horizons identical.
ASSETNUM
), locations (LOCATION
), inspection results (INSPECTRESULT
), open vegetation defects, WOs (WOTRACK
).Join keys & crosswalk
Esri.SectionId
↔ADMS.LSID
(maintain section_id_xwalk).Esri.DeviceGUID
↔ADMS.DeviceId
.Maximo.ASSETNUM
↔Esri.AssetId
. Canonicalsection_id
=ADMS.LSID
.
section_id
, 0–100)Use the same base weights, with two Schneider‑specific tunings:
Updated deltas (apply on top of base):
protection_mode_fire_active
: −5fpi_alarm_7d
: +5Extreme (≥85)
EcoStruxure ADMS:
Operate Device
API).Very High (70–84)
High (55–69)
Elevated (40–54)
Baseline (<40)
Esri
RiskSegments
feature layer and fields as Spec A.band
.EcoStruxure ADMS
risk-events
topic (Kafka/AMQP) — payload aligns to Spec A but includes LSID:{
"section_id": "LSID-90210",
"score": 91,
"band": "EXTREME",
"devices": ["RC-2201","RC-2203"],
"recommended_mode": "FIRE",
"expires_at": "2025-09-08T18:15:00Z"
}
Operate Device API (logical example):
POST /adms/device/{deviceId}/mode
→ { "mode": "FIRE", "recloseEnabled": false }
Study/Plan API: POST /adms/study/reconfigure
with candidate isolation/back‑tie points; returns study_id
for operator review.
Maximo
{
"wonum": null,
"worktype": "VEG-QUICK",
"priority": 2,
"location": "LSID-90210",
"description": "Quick-hit veg abatement due to Very High risk",
"targetfinish": "2025-09-11T23:59:00Z",
"longdescription": "Drivers: wind, RH, ERC; see Esri RiskSegments for map.",
"esri_section_id": "LSID-90210"
}
wonum
to RiskSegments
.Twilio
wildfire_advisory
, psps_watch
, psps_warning
with localization (en
, es
) and AFN routing.sid
/status for audit.Snowflake
RAW
, FEATURES
, RISK
, OPS
.FEATURES.SECTION_15MIN
, RISK.SCORES_15MIN
, RISK.EVENTS
, OPS.ACTIONS_AUDIT
, OPS.WO
, OPS.NOTIFICATIONS
.near_real_time
(0–6h) and day_ahead
(24–72h) scores; label outputs with window_start/end
.(section_id, window_start, window_end)
; re‑runs update same row/version.DEGRADED
, suppress auto‑suggested actions above HIGH
.dq_alerts
topic when inputs stale > 1 hour.risk_config.json
(weights/thresholds; one per stack).risk-events
, adms-actions
, dq_alerts
.RiskSegments
schema + WebMap/WebApp item definitions.Build an end‑to‑end Wildfire Ignition Risk & PSPS Decision‑Support system with Esri + [GE ADMS or Schneider ADMS] + [SAP or Maximo] + [Everbridge or Twilio] + [Databricks/ADLS or Snowflake]. Score each
section_id
every 15 min (Red Flag) or hourly otherwise, using the exact weights defined inrisk_config.json
above. Publish scores and recommended actions to arisk-events
topic and to an EsriRiskSegments
feature layer. Whenband ∈ {EXTREME, VERY_HIGH}
, generate ADMS protection mode suggestions (GE: Fire‑Safety profile; Schneider: Protection Mode = Fire), a Switching Plan/Study for sectionalizing alternatives, and a Decision Package summarizing risk drivers and PSPS trade‑offs with geofenced comms drafts. ForHIGH
andELEVATED
, create Maximo/SAP work orders per the thresholds. Enforce human‑in‑the‑loop for any ADMS changes and all PSPS. Log every suggestion/action toactions_audit
. Acceptance: backtest ≥80% recall for historical equipment ignitions at score ≥70; pilot shows ≥20% ignition reduction and ≥10% PSPS CMI reduction; operators rate packages ≥4/5; regulator reporting produces with no manual rework.